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Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts

Sunday, 7 July 2013

500 Billion devices by 2030, etc...

Few weeks back in the LTE World Summit 2013, I heard someone from Ericsson mention that internally they think that by 2030 there will be 500 Billion Connected devices on the planet. The population projections for 2030 is somewhere around 8.5 Billion people worldwide. As a result the figure does not come much as a surprise to me.

John Cunliffe from Ericsson is widely credited for making the statement 50 Billion connected devices by 2020. Recently he spoke in the Cambridge Wireless and defended his forecast on the connected devices. He also provided us with the traffic exploration tool to see how the devices market would look up till 2018. Here is one of the pictures using the tool:



In terms of Cellular connectivity, we are looking at 9 Billion devices by 2018. The interesting thing to notice is that in 2017, there are still some 4 Billion feature phones. While in the developed world our focus is completely on Smartphones, its interesting to see new and existing SMS/USSD based services are still popular in the developing world. Some months back I heard about Facebook developing SMS/USSD based experience for Feature phones, I am sure that would attract a lot of users from the developing world.

One thing missing from the above is non-cellular connections which will make bulk of connectivity. Wi-Fi for example is a major connectivity medium for tablets. In fact 90% of the tablets have only WiFi connectivity. Bluetooth is another popular method of connectivity. While its mostly used in conjunction with phones, it is going to be a popular way of connecting devices in the Personal Area Network's (PAN's). So its no surprise that we will see 50 Billion connected devices but maybe not by 2020. My guess would be around 2022-23.

Sunday, 30 December 2012

'Small Cells' Analyst Forecasts

Interesting discussion, courtesy of Think Small Cell



If you just want to view the slides quickly, available below:



Tuesday, 5 July 2011

Revenues vs Network Investments

Nice Pic summarising the Network investments vs Revenue for Voice and Data. Click on Pic to enlarge.

Friday, 23 January 2009

Nokia feels the pinch due to credit crunch


Nokia Corp., the world's largest maker of mobile phones, reported Thursday a 69% drop in fourth-quarter profit as demand for its handsets fell sharply during the key holiday season, particularly in China, and as it lost market share in the lucrative high-end segment.

The European tech bellwether also lowered its dividend, slashed its 2009 forecast of global demand for phones and said it would cut roughly 1,000 jobs to keep a lid on expenses.

The results mark a reversal of fortune for the Finnish company, which earlier this year seemed to have all but crushed even its nearest competitor with its stronghold on emerging markets, efficient cost control and extraordinary distribution power.

Quarterly sales declined 19% to 12.66 billion euros, missing forecasts calling for a top line of 13 billion euros, as demand for phones dropped sharply.

The number of handsets shipped in the latest three months fell 15% to 113.1 million units. Sequentially, shipments slipped 4% -- an unusual development considering the fourth quarter is customarily the strongest one for phone makers.

Phone makers have been suffering in the past few months as consumers rein in their discretionary spending. In developed markets, many are delaying replacing their old mobile phones. In emerging markets, handset users often simply aren't buying new ones.

Underscoring this, Sony Ericsson, the phone-making joint venture of Japan's Sony Corp. (SNE) and Sweden's L.M. Ericsson (ERICY), posted its second straight quarterly loss last week and warned the market would deteriorate further in 2009.

Also last week, Motorola Inc. (MOT) said it would report a fourth-quarter loss and slash 4,000 jobs after its sales collapsed over the holiday season.

And on Thursday, Nokia lowered its outlook for global industry mobile-device volumes, saying it now expects them to fall 10% in 2009, compared to an earlier forecast of a 5% drop.

The projected decline would be sharper in the first half than in the second half, with volumes dropping more sharply than is customary between the fourth and the first quarter, Nokia said.

Higher profile for digital mapping

Among Nokia's individual divisions, the handset business suffered the most, with sales down 27% to 8.1 billion euros. The sharpest decline in the number of handsets shipped happened in China, which registered a 36% drop, followed by the Middle East and Africa, with a 23% fall.

Nokia estimated its market share at 37% in the quarter, down from 40% a year ago and 38% in the third quarter. It said it lost ground in the Middle East and Africa, North America and China. It also lost ground in the high-end, smart- phone category, which worried investors.

Nevertheless the phone maker said it expects to maintain its market share at 37% in the first quarter.

The average selling price of a Nokia handset slipped to 71 euros from 72 euros in the third quarter, even though many new handsets, such as the 5800 XpressMusic, hit the shelves in time for Christmas. The decline put pressure on gross margins, which narrowed to 33.8% from 36.5% in the third quarter.

The division's operating profit decreased 70%, to 766 million euros, in the latest quarter.

At the Nokia Siemens networks joint venture, sales fell 5% to 4.3 billion euros.

The division, half owned by Siemens (SI) of Germany, achieved most of its targeted cost savings but reported an operating loss of 179 million euros while it broke even in the same period last year.

At the Navteq digital mapping business, sales jumped 31% sequentially to 205 million euros. The unit's operating loss shrank to 73 million euros from 80 million euros in the third quarter.

Sunday, 18 January 2009

What lies ahead in year 2009

In the year just gone i.e. 2008 we saw some unprecedented economic situations. I can clearly say that I have never seen anything like that but then I’m too young to say that anyway -:))

Talking to more experienced people in the industry I came to the conclusion that this recession indeed one of the worst one.

It's a very tough economic climate out there and there an every chance that no one will be reprieved by its effect. What I men by that and even if you haven't been touched by the downturn thus far, you will be. There is an argument that IT or technology shop has some advantage over other departments which makes sense as well as I can rarely think of a business these days which doesn’t use telecoms these days. Nevertheless, it would be unthinkable not to be wearing your flak jacket at all times.

Jos losses have started to happen in telecoms now with the likes of Motorola, Nortel already involved in this procedure. More than 50,000 tech workers lost their jobs before the financial meltdown hit, and more jobs may soon be axed.

Everyday we see ourselves into more gloom and doom with more bad news coming our way. Even India is getting affected by this and especially after what happened Satyam. The Satyam scandal had shocked India specially the IT world. This has definitely not helped to boost up the confidence with some of the IT companies shares plunging. The Satyam scandal what many has labeled as India’s Enron has put a big doubt into investor’s mind which is a very serious concern.
In way this scandal has done woken up many and will do some good in the future. Telecom companies are working feverishly to get their balance sheet right and hence already started taking drastic measures. I view it like this where everybody is anticipating a tsunami and to save themselves from high waves they are already moving onto high grounds.

I myself is involved in the situation where the salaries of the staff are frozen for at least one year. I believe any measure taken now although painful is a right thing to do. So when tsunami comes the high waves may not do the much damage and if doesn’t then it’s even better.
Companies are in the mindset of not spending in the coming months and plans to invest only in what it call key projects but with an increase of only 1 or 2 percent in the next 12 months.
LTE is considered as one of the key area of development but at the same time provide immense dilemma as well. Companies are no doubts thinking of concentrating on the current projects which guarantee a source of revenue but then want to spend in LTE product as well so that they are not behind when the good times begin.

People with high skills especially in wireless and VoIP may have got good chances of just clinging on to their jobs.

Remember everybody would need the skilled people when good times come back so it’s in companies interest to freeze the salaries instead of making make people redundant.

It's important, above all, to keep your skills at top form and be flexible with an employer going through tough times.

In the end I will mention the line from Judi’s blog which is
“Remember, don't panic. The trains cannot run without you”

Tuesday, 5 June 2007

Things our phone will do in next 10 years



Interesting article in Cnet on "10 things your mobile will do in next 10 years"

1. Wallet: This would be quite cool when available. Have been hearing about this for years now. Apparently very popular in Japan and S.Korea where people are not using credit cards anymore and instead using Phones.

A much better idea would be to have a universal recognition kind of chip which i can use as Credit card, Smart Card for Trains (In london we have Oyester cards) and then i can use this for accessing company door, garage door , etc. This would be a real killer app but doesnt look like will happen in near (or far) future

2. Internet: In December, ABI Research said that almost 50 million people used social-networking sites on their mobile phones. That number is expected to grow to 174 million by 2011. It would be cool to be able to browse using your phone. Mosst of the sites i use (including mine) are not mobile friendly and this is the thing that is turning people off the net.

3. Location: Already too many phones supporting GPS and A-GPS. The chips are becoming cheaper with cost of around $5 so the manufacturers should have no problem. In future we will get disscounted packages where we will have to receive adverts which would be location specific. Nokia has some applications which can compete with TomTom for getting directions, etc.

4. Search: Hardly anything needs to be mentioned for this.

5. TV: Have written enough on Mobile TV already. IMS Research forecasts that by 2011 there will be more than 30 million mobile TV subscribers in the United States. The firm also predicts that almost 70 million handsets capable of receiving mobile TV will be shipped in the U.S. in 2011.

6. Simplified surfing: From the Cnet article

Ever notice how many clicks it takes to find the one thing you're looking for on your phone? It's worse than counting how many licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop. But handset makers and mobile operators are
hard at work trying to make phones easier to navigate and simpler to use.


The upcoming
iPhone from Apple is a perfect example of how user interfaces will be improved. Apple fans are confident that the company has come up with another slick and intuitive
design, just as it did for the iPod.


One aspect of the iPhone's interface that has been publicized is its use of sensory technology to detect when the device is rotated. This allows the phone to automatically render pictures on the screen in portrait (vertical) or landscape (horizontal) format. That allows the user to determine which format is best for viewing whatever is on the screen, be
it a Web page, video, or photo.


In the future,
motion-sensing technology, similar to that used in the Nintendo Wii game console, will also allow people to navigate their cell phone menus or the mobile Internet
with a flick of their wrists.


But motion sensing is just one piece of the puzzle. Operators such as Verizon Wireless are redesigning their content menus
to reduce the number of clicks users must endure to find what they want. Ryan Hughes, vice president of digital media programming for Verizon Wireless, said he believes that user interfaces will be customizable so that users can decide
for themselves which applications will be displayed on their phones most prominently.


Motorola is already offering a customizable interface on the
Razr 2, which the company claims will make searching for contacts, accessing applications, and messaging much easier.

7. Brainier radios: Maybe in future SDRs (Software Defined Radios) may become more common and popular and yes the technology will become feasible. Also multiple radios on the chpset would mean Handovers will be possible from 3G to WiMax, Wifi, etc.

8. Personal Cell: Everyone seems to be talking of Femtocell. Where we will have a small 3G base station in our home. We could use it for Voice or High Speed data. No need for the POTS and use mobile for everything. This will still take some time as the operators dont fully understand the benefits of offering cheap data.

9. Perfect Camera: Today roughly 41 percent of American households own a camera phone. In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to buy a phone today that doesn't have a camera. By 2010 more than 1 billion mobile phones in the world will ship with an embedded camera, up from the 589 million camera phones that are expected to be sold in 2007, according to market research firm Gartner.

10. More music on the phone: Mobile phone users around the globe are expected to spend $32.2 billion on music for their handsets by 2010, up from $13.7 billion in 2007, according to Gartner. This can only happen when Music Video/Audio becomes cheaper though. Personally i would prefer listening to FM Radio rather than music but i am not sure how much demand there would be and ofcourse the operators dont gain anything.

Friday, 25 May 2007

China getting serious with TD-SCDMA


China is getting serious with its TD-SCDMA standards and would like some major players in 3G to signup and appreciate the standards. The Chinese government is keen to have a standard made in China to be used (atleast in China). The government is holding off the auctoning of 3G spectrum untill they are sure that TD-SCDMA is ready and there are enough handsets available for the people.
'Foreign companies need to get serious about TD-SCDMA as they are less likely to get anywhere with WCDMA and CDMA 2000 in the near future,' warned Haofei.
This is despite the fact that 2 weeks back Bloomberg had an article stating that China has adopted WCDMA and CDMA2000 as two other official 3G technologies except TD-SCDMA. The popularity of these two would depend on the success of TD-SCDMA.
China's 3G handset sales are projected at 22 mln units by 2010, Zhao Hong, a senior official with the TD-SCDMA Industry Alliance and an executive director with Lenovo Mobile Communications said at a conference.

Zhao said that handsets configured for China's homegrown TD-SCDMA standard are expected to account for 50 pct of 3G sales, while WCDMA handsets will hold 40 pct and CDMA2000 handsets will account for 10 pct.

Thursday, 24 May 2007

Almost 300,000 LTE Base Transceiver Stations by 2014

Nearly 300,000 LTE Base Transceiver Stations will be installed by 2014, according to a new study from ABI Research. While LTE will encounter competition from other mobile broadband technologies, its supporters extol its potential to unify the mobile infrastructure market.

LTE brings to the market 25 years of operating experience using TDM and CDMA technology. It aims to use that, combined with OFDM, and other techniques, to provide the best of both worlds, perhaps stealing WiMAX’s thunder. This also takes the industry from the current two-network approach of circuit switching for voice, and packet switching for data to a single IP network for both services.





“LTE faces competition from other broadband wireless technologies and it will need to demonstrate clear technical and economic advantages to convince network operators,” says ABI Research analyst Ian Cox. “The mobile variant of WiMAX will start to appear in 2007 as the WiMAX Forum Certification program ramps up. The industry is also working on HSPA+, which could offer the same performance in a 5 MHz bandwidth. Without additional spectrum, operators could face a difficult choice.”
Cox further comments that, “LTE is the NGN for the mobile industry and is being standardized by 3GPP with the full support of operators via the NGMN Group.”

Long Term Evolution (LTE) of 3G technologies is about to benefit from Release-8 of the 3GPP standard, planned for the third quarter of 2007. The potential rewards of LTE are simplicity of operation, a “flat” architecture offering low latency, and spectrum flexibility. Backwards compatibility and roaming with 2G and 3G networks are added bonuses, along with lower power consumption and improved performance, . LTE could also unite the W-CDMA and CDMA communities because of its spectral flexibility.

For vendors, LTE will allow development of a new market to replace declining 3G revenues.

For users, says Cox, LTE will enable broadband services, including VoIP, to be offered over SIP-enabled networks. Each service will be IP-based, offering high data rates and low latency, with on-line gaming becoming a reality along with mobile network data speeds comparable to those of fixed networks.

“UMTS Long Term Evolution”
(http://www.abiresearch.com/products/market_research/UMTS_Long_Term_Evolution) reviews the world market for LTE.