Smartphones: It came, It saw, It conquered

Smartphones have replaced so many of our gadgets. The picture above is a witness to how all the gadgets have now been replaced by smartphones. To some extent hardware requirements have been transferred to software requirements (Apps). But the smartphones does a lot more than just hardware to software translation.

Most youngsters no longer have bookshelves or the encyclopedia collections. eBooks and Wikipedia have replaced them. We no longer need sticky notes and physical calendars, there are Apps for them.

Back in 2014, Benedict Evans posted his "Mobile is Eating the world" presentation. His presentation has received over 700K views. I know its not as much as Justin Bieber's songs views but its still a lot in the tech world. He has recently updated his presentation (embedded below) and its now called "Mobile ate the world".

We sometimes think of the shift to mobile as finished, or almost finished. It isn't. pic.twitter.com/l5gaiMlaoU

— Benedict Evans (@BenedictEvans) March 12, 2016

Quite rightly, the job is not done yet. There is still long way to go. The fact that this tweet has over 600 retweets is a witness to this fact. Here are some of the slides that I really liked (and links reltaed to them - opens in a new window).

While we can see how Smartphones are getting ever more popular and how other gadgets that its replacing is suffering, I know people who own a smartphone for everything except voice call and have a feature phone for voice calls. Other people (including myself) rely on OTT for calls as its guaranteed better quality most of the time (at least indoors).

Smartphones have already replaced a lot of gadgets and other day to day necessities but the fact is that it can do a lot more. Payments is one such thing. The fact that I still carry a physical wallet means that the environment around me hasn't transformed enough for it to be made redundant. If I look in my wallet, I have some cash, a credit and debit card, driving license, some store loyalty cards and my business cards. There is no reason why all of these cannot be digital and/or virtual.

A Connected Car is a Smartphone on/with wheels.

A connected drone can be considered as smartphone that flies.

The Smartphones today are more than just hardware/software. They are a complete ecosystem. We can argue if only 2 options for OSs is good or bad. From developers point of view, two is just about right.

Another very important point to remember that smartphones enable different platforms.

Old: all software expands until it includes messaging
New: all messaging expands until it includes software

— Benedict Evans (@BenedictEvans) March 13, 2015

While we may just have messaging apps that are acting as platforms, there is a potential for a lot more.

Here is the presentation, worth reflecting on each slide:

If you haven't heard Benedict Evans speak, you can refer to a recent video by him on this topic:



Related posts on the web:

• The Second Smartphone Revolution

From a report by MCF Corporation:

As deployment of 3G networks continues to grow, applications built for mobile entertainment should become more ubiquitous. According to Juniper Research, the value of the mobile entertainment market, including music, games, TV, sports and infotainment, gambling and adult content, could increase to nearly $77 billion by 2011 from $17.3 billion in 2006. Included in this forecast is the 50.2% CAGR of the mobile game
market by 2009 (to $10.9 billion from $3.1 billion in 2006). While one could argue the potential size of the mobile entertainment market, we believe that the transition to data has begun in an effort to reduce churn rates, preserve ARPU, and extend carrier brands.


The following highlights a few of the drivers:

Mobile entertainment and content. As deployment of 3G networks continues to grow, applications built for mobile entertainment should become more ubiquitous. According to Juniper Research, the value of the mobile entertainment market, including music, games, TV, sports and infotainment, gambling and adult content, could increase to nearly $77 billion by 2011 from $17.3 billion in 2006. Included in this forecast is the 50.2% CAGR of the mobile game market by 2009 (to $10.9 billion from $3.1 billion in 2006). While one could argue the potential size of the mobile entertainment market, we believe that the transition to data has begun in an effort to reduce churn rates, preserve ARPU, and extend carrier brands.

Location-based services (LBS): LBS is quickly emerging as a benchmark for service differentiation among mobile operators. According to ABI Research, GPS penetration in handsets could reach 1 billion by 2010 while Berg Insight projects 83% LBS growth in Europe, reaching a €5 billion market by 2010. We continue to expect LBS to be utilized for navigation, management/ tracking of assets, information (for example, mobile yellow pages) and emergency services. We are initially focusing on companies that offer machine-to-machine (M2M) applications which allow enterprises and consumers the ability to monitor and manage many types of assets (industrial vehicles, rental car fleets, real estate) in an effort to reduce costs and more efficiently operate.

Converged mobile devices, applications and services: According to IDC, the worldwide market for converged mobile devices increased 42% during 2006, reaching 80.5 million units, and is expected to cumulatively reach more than 1 billion units by 2011. Growth in shipments is primarily due to a greater selection of devices from which to choose and lower price points as mobile carriers look to differentiate their services. Many of these devices offer multiple features such as embedded cameras, MP3 players, GPS capability, and expended memory slots which allow subscribers the ability to carry only one device. We view the introduction of devices such as the iPhone as driving wireless data usage.

At the end of 1Q07, there were 2.8 billion wireless subscribers worldwide,
of which approximately 6%, or 172 million, were 3G subscribers. The 24% CAGR of total subscribers during the past four years has been driven by the rapid deployment of networks, availability and affordability of handsets, along with the introduction of new 3G services. We estimate 3G subscribers will grow at a 55% CAGR through 2010, reaching 652 million (approximately 14%) total estimated subscribers. We believe that wireless technology allows enterprises to become more efficient operators due to the lower costs to deploy and operate, comparable capacity to wireline solutions, increased functionality and productivity, and ability to track personnel and assets.

The chart above illustrates how data ARPU has stabilized total ARPU for AT&T Wireless/Cingular ($48-50 range), which has more than 62 million subscribers. AT&T currently reports approximately 33 million data customers (up more than 30% Y/Y) the growth of which has begun to reflect wider usage of its new 3G UMTS/HSDPA network (current coverage in 165 cities and is on schedule to cover virtually all of the top 100 U.S. markets by the end of 2007). The trend of wireless data
growth offsetting decreases in total ARPU is clearly evident below and is occurring throughout the industry.