4G/LTE, 5G and Private Networks in Africa

The Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) recently released its "Regional Spotlight Africa – October 2024" report. It tracks 604 public mobile networks across North and Sub-Saharan Africa, including LTE, LTE-Advanced, 5G, and fixed wireless access networks. The report gives an up-to-date view of 4G and 5G deployment in Africa, using the latest data and insights from GSA's various reports on mobile networks and satellite services.

Africa has seen major progress in telecommunications in recent years. The expansion of 4G LTE networks has improved data speeds, enhanced connectivity, and supported the spread of mobile broadband services. Looking ahead, 5G technology promises even faster speeds, lower latency, and stronger security, opening the door to new possibilities in connectivity.

The report covers key areas of mobile network development, such as:

• The current state of LTE and 5G rollouts
• LTE-Advanced advancements
• 5G standalone networks
• The growth of private networks
• Phasing out 2G and 3G technologies
• Progress in satellite services

Alongside the report, GSA hosted a regional webinar where the research team shared insights on:

• The status of LTE and LTE-Advanced in Africa and how it compares globally
• Whether 5G development is being delayed by ongoing LTE rollouts and older devices
• Recent spectrum auctions and assignments
• The transition from 2G and 3G networks
• The potential for satellite non-terrestrial (NTN) services in Africa and how operators are responding

The webinar video is available below.

Related Posts: 

• Private Networks Technology Blog: Private Networks Growth in APAC
• The 3G4G Blog: GSA's Updates on Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Numbers
• Operator Watch Blog: The Status of Mobile Networks in Latin America
• Connectivity Technology Blog: LTE vs 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) 

How many Cell Sites and Base Stations Worldwide?

I wrote a blog post on this topic nearly three years back on the Operator Watch Blog here. That post is very handy as every few months someone or other asks me about this number. Here is a slightly updated number, though I am not confident on its accuracy. 

Gabriel Brown, analyst at Heavy Reading shares this chart above in the annual online Open RAN Digital Symposium. Based on the chart above, there are 7 million physical sites and 10 million logical sites. As there are many sites hosting infrastructure from multiple operators, the number of logical sites are more than the number of physical sites.

Again, most of the sites have distributed RAN (D-RAN) so there may be one or more base stations (baseband unit or BBU) and each base station can serve one or more radios. See links at the bottom for tutorials on these topics.

Per MIIT, new China 5G BTS shipments to drop by a third in 2023 relative to 2022 shipments. https://t.co/6iCMCh0ht6

— Stefan Pongratz (@StefanPongratz) March 9, 2023

China Tower had nearly 2.1 million telecom towers installed with 3.36m tower tenants at end of 2022. An MIIT minister said that China's operators will deploy 600k 5G base stations in 2023, taking total to 2.9m.

Astonishing scale of investment and execution in #China for #5G, creating a pervasive connectivity fabric that is driving massive digital transformation. 1.4 million base stations for 5G alone!!! For perspective, that nearly 3x India's total base station count...@mandalainsights https://t.co/9djZiiy67t

— Shiv Putcha (@shivputcha) January 21, 2022

The number of 5G radios in India just crossed 100,000 according to latest data released by the Department of Telecommunications. A base station generally manages multiple radios so not sure how many base stations would be there for 5G and even for older Gs.

In South Korea, according to the Ministry of Science and ICT and the mobile communication industry, as of December 2021, had 460,000 5G wireless stations of which, base stations accounted for 94% of the total, or 430,000 units, while repeaters only accounted for 30,000 units, or 6%.

Light Reading reported in September 2022 that there are nearly 419,000 cell sites across the US, according to the newest figures from CTIA. 

China and USA are roughly the same size so you can see how China is ensuring their mobile networks provide the best QoE. It should also be noted that the population of China is over four times that of the USA. On the other hand, India and China have the same population but India is one third the size of China roughly.

Related Posts:

• Operator Watch Blog: How many 5G Cell Towers & Base Stations Worldwide?
• The 3G4G Blog: Different Types of RAN Architectures - Distributed, Centralized & Cloud
• The 3G4G Blog: Open RAN Terminology and Players 

How Many People are Still Unconnected in 2023 and Why?

I hear in many presentations that half the world is still unconnected so we need a solution XYZ. In this post I will explore how many people are really unconnected and why.

GSMA produces an annual report called "The State of Mobile Internet Connectivity Report". The latest issue from Nov 2022 explains the number of people that are still unconnected because of coverage gap or the usage gap. Quoting from the report:

(click to expand the image)

By the end of 2021, 4.3 billion people were using mobile internet, representing 55% of the world’s population, up from 31% in 2014 (see Figure 1). This translates into almost 300 million people coming online in the past year. Most of the people who started using mobile internet in 2021 came from LMICs (low and middle-income countries), where 94% of the unconnected population live.

By the end of 2021, the share of the world’s population living in areas without mobile broadband coverage stood at 5%, meaning that 400 million people are still not covered by a mobile broadband network. Since 2018, this coverage gap has reduced by only 1 pp a year (see Figure 1), highlighting how the remaining uncovered communities – which are predominantly rural, poor and sparsely populated – are the most challenging to reach in a financially sustainable manner. For example, in least developed countries (LDCs) almost 30% of people living in rural areas are still not covered by a mobile broadband network.

A much larger proportion of the unconnected live in areas already covered by mobile broadband networks. By the end of 2021, 40% of the world’s population (3.2 billion people) were living within the footprint of a mobile broadband network but not using mobile internet. While this usage gap remained relatively unchanged between 2014 and 2019, it declined by 300 million people (or 5 pp) over the past two years. However, the usage gap remains substantial and is now almost eight times the size of the coverage gap. It is worth noting that these numbers are for the total population, some of whom would never be expected to use the internet (e.g. young infants). Indeed, taking adults (18 years old and above) only, the usage gap stands at 25%, a much smaller though still significant gap.

The report further expands the reasons for usage gap as shown below:

(click to enlarge)

As can be seen, the reasons have been grouped in 5 major categories as follows:

• Literacy and digital skills
• I do not know how to access the internet on a mobile phone
• I have difficulties with reading and writing
• I find it difficult to use a mobile in general (calling, texting or mobile internet)
• I do not have time to learn how to use the internet on a mobile phone
• There is nobody to teach or help me to use mobile internet
• Relevance
• There is not enough in my own language on the internet
• I do not find the internet relevant enough for me (not useful or not interesting)
• Affordability
• The cost of buying a mobile phone that can access the internet is too high for me
• The cost of buying data to use the internet on my mobile is too high for me
• Safety and security
• I am concerned that I would receive unwanted contact from people online (e.g. scam emails or unwanted messages)
• I am concerned that it might expose myself or my family to harmful content
• I am concerned that my identity or other private information will be stolen or misused
• Access
• There is limited or no coverage to access the internet in my area
• Using the internet on my mobile phone is too slow (e.g. connection speeds)
• My family does not approve of me using the internet on a mobile phone
• It is hard to find a mobile phone agent or representative to buy mobile internet data from
• Using the internet on my mobile phone uses too much battery
• I cannot borrow or pay to use internet on another person’s phone
• It is hard to find somewhere to buy a mobile phone which is able to connect to the internet

There are many reports of blackmail and extortion cases in India that are linked to mobile phones and internet. You can read about them here and here. These also discourage a lot of people to embrace smartphones, especially women.  

Although women account for close to half the world's population, 259 million fewer women have access to the Internet than men.
The #GenderGap in lower-income nations has not improved since 2019 https://t.co/NSO6FZi15s #ITUdata pic.twitter.com/BnMIbe1tgF

— Int’l Telecommunication Union (@ITU) December 29, 2022

Although women account for close to half the world's population, according to a UN report on gender digital divide, 259 million fewer women have access to the Internet than men in 2022. 

I hope that the next time presenters are talking about the number of unconnected people, they put things in context and mention the connectivity and the usage gap. 

Finally, here is a webinar recording from M4D discussing the latest trends in global connectivity from The State of Mobile Internet Connectivity Report 2022:

Related Posts: 

• The 3G4G Blog: Facebook's Attempt to Connect the Unconnected
• The 3G4G Blog: Connecting the Unconnected in Peru with Internet para todos 
• The 3G4G Blog - Telefonica: Big Data, Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Connect the Unconnected
• Telecoms Infrastructure Blog: Africa Mobile Network and MTN connecting Zambia
• Telecoms Infrastructure Blog: AMN's Ultra-low cost sites
• Telecoms Infrastructure Blog: Vodafone UK improving coverage with Phone Boxes, Mini-masts & Manhole Covers
• Telecoms Infrastructure Blog: Small Cells in BT Phone Boxes
• Telecoms Infrastructure Blog: Bigbelly's Telebelly Small Cells to Connect Rural and Urban Users
• The 3G4G Blog: When will 2G & 3G be switched off now that 5G is here?
• The 3G4G Blog: Can KaiOS accelerate the transition from 2G / 3G to 4G? 

GSMAi Webinar: Is the Industry Moving Fast Enough on Standalone 5G?

I recently participated in a webinar, discussing one of my favourite topics, 5G Standalone (5G SA). If you do not know about 5G SA, you may want to quickly watch my short and simple video on the topic here.

Next week I am participating in a webinar, "Open for Debate: Is the Industry Moving Fast Enough on Standalone 5G?" along with Peter Jarich, Radhika Gupta and Tim Hatt. Hope to see you there: https://t.co/TQ8Aa5LXYP #3G4G5G #5G #5GNetworks #5GTechnology #5GNR #5GStandalone #5GSA pic.twitter.com/Rd7hGvvCNe

— Zahid Ghadialy (@zahidtg) July 15, 2022

Last year I blogged about GSA's 5G Standalone webinar here. That time we were discussing why 5G SA is taking time to deliver, it was sort of a similar story this time. Things are changing though and you will see a lot more of these standalone networks later this year and even early next year. 

The slides of the webinar are available here and the video is embedded below:

Here are some of my thoughts on why 5G SA is taking much longer than most people anticipated:

• 5G SA will force operators to move to 5G core which is a completely new architecture. The transition to this is taking much longer than expected, especially if there are a lot of legacy services that needs to be supported.
• Many operators are moving towards converged core with 4G & 5G support to simply the core. This transition is taking long.
• For taking complete advantage of 5G architecture, cloud native implementation is required. Some operators have already started the transition to cloud native but others are lagging.
• 5G SA speeds will be lower than NSA speeds hence some operators who don't have a lot of mid-band spectrum are delaying their 5G SA rollouts.
• Many operators have managed to reduce their latency as they start to move to edge datacentres, hence the urgency for 5G standalone has reduced.
• Most operators do not see any new revenue opportunities because of 5G SA, hence they want to be completely ready before rolling out 5G SA
• Finally, you may hear a lot about not enough devices supporting 5G SA but that's not the device manufacturers views.  See this tweet from GSA 👇

#Supporting5Gstandalone

With 5G SA networks now being launched, GSA is already aware of 842 announced devices with claimed support for 5G SA, up 202% from 278 at the end of 2020.

Full report on: https://t.co/8f1fw4R2fI#5G | #SA | #Devices | #GSA pic.twitter.com/7LEoyasplm

— GSA (@gsacom) July 11, 2022

Do you agree with my reasoning? If not, please let me know in the comments.

Related Posts: 

• The 3G4G Blog: The Status of 5G Standalone (5G SA) Networks - March 2021
• The 3G4G Blog: What will 5G Standalone deliver?
• The 3G4G Blog: The Politics of Standalone vs Non-Standalone 5G & 4G Speeds
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G Reality Check - Data Rates
• Operator Watch Blog: Germany gets Two 5G Standalone Networks
• The 3G4G Blog: Minimum Bandwidth Requirement for 5G Non-Standalone (NSA) Deployment
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G Dual Connectivity, Webinar and Architecture Overview
• The 3G4G Blog: What about 5G Network Architecture Option 4 (a.k.a. NE-DC) ?
• Free 5G Training: 5G Use Cases
• Free 5G Training: 5G Adverts
• 3G4G: 5G for Absolute Beginners 

GSMA Releases Mobile Economy Report 2022

The GSMA Mobile Economy report series provides the latest insights on the state of the mobile industry worldwide. Produced by GSMA's in-house research team, GSMA Intelligence, these reports contain a range of technology, socio-economic and financial datasets, including forecasts out to 2025. The global version of the report is published annually at MWC Barcelona, while regional editions are published throughout the year.

The Infographic above (PDF) shows the latest update from 2022. The PDF of report is available here.

Selective extract from the executive summary as follows:

The mobile industry has been instrumental in extending connectivity to people around the world. In 2021, the number of mobile internet subscribers reached 4.2 billion people globally. Operators’ investments in network infrastructure over the last decade have helped to shrink the coverage gap for mobile broadband networks from a third of the global population to just 6%. But although the industry continues to invest in innovative solutions and partnerships to extend connectivity to still underserved and far-flung communities, the adoption of mobile internet services has not kept pace with the expansion of network coverage. This has resulted in a significant usage gap. In 2021, the usage gap stood at 3.2 billion people, or 41% of the global population. 

The reasons for the usage gap are multifaceted and vary by region, but they generally relate to a lack of affordability, relevance, knowledge and skills, in addition to safety and security concerns. Furthermore, the barriers to mobile internet adoption are particularly acute among certain segments of the population, including women, the elderly, those in rural areas and persons with disabilities – or a combination thereof. Addressing the usage gap for these key groups will extend the benefits of the internet and digital technology to more people in society, and will require concerted efforts by a broad range of stakeholders working together with mobile operators and other ecosystem players, such as device manufacturers and digital content creators.

5G adoption continues to grow rapidly in pioneer markets, with the total number of connections set to reach 1 billion in 2022. Momentum has been boosted by a number of factors, including the economic recovery from the pandemic, rising 5G handset sales, network coverage expansions and overall marketing efforts by mobile operators. Meanwhile, a new wave of 5G rollouts in large markets with modest income levels (such as Brazil, Indonesia and India) could further incentivise the mass production of more affordable 5G devices, which in turn could further bolster subscriber growth. By the end of 2025, 5G will account for around a quarter of total mobile connections and more than two in five people around the world will live within reach of a 5G network.

4G still has room to grow in most developing markets, particularly in SubSaharan Africa, where 4G adoption is still below a fifth of total connections and operators are stepping up efforts to migrate existing 2G and 3G customers to 4G networks. However, rising 5G adoption in leading markets, such as China, South Korea and the US, means that 4G adoption on a global level is beginning to decline. Globally, 4G adoption will account for 55% of total connections by 2025, down from a peak of 58% in 2021.

By the end of 2021, 5.3 billion people subscribed to mobile services, representing 67% of the global population. In a growing number of markets, most adults now own a mobile phone, meaning that future growth will come from younger populations taking out a mobile subscription for the first time. Over the period to 2025, there will be an additional 400 million new mobile subscribers, most of them from Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa, taking the total number of subscribers to 5.7 billion (70% of the global population). 

In 2021, mobile technologies and services generated $4.5 trillion of economic value added, or 5% of GDP, globally. This figure will grow by more than $400 billion by 2025 to nearly $5 trillion as countries increasingly benefit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by the increased take-up of mobile services. 5G is expected to benefit all economic sectors of the global economy during this period, with services and manufacturing experiencing the most impact.

You can download all reports from here.

For anyone interested in keeping a track of which 2G/3G networks are undergoing sunset, you can follow my Twitter thread that lists all the networks I become aware of 

Orange is shutting down some 2G/3G networks in Europe, African opcos won't be affected. In summary:
* France: 2G shutdown 2025, 3G sunset 2028
* Rest of Europe: 3G switch off by 2025 & 2G latest by 2030#2G #3G #3G4G5G #2G3Gshutdownhttps://t.co/3iYF93MWej

— Zahid Ghadialy (@zahidtg) March 5, 2022

Related Posts: 

• The 3G4G Blog: Are there 50 Billion IoT Devices yet?
• The 3G4G Blog: The Status of 5G Standalone (5G SA) Networks - March 2021
• The 3G4G Blog: Real-life 5G Use Cases for Verticals from China
• The 3G4G Blog: When will 2G & 3G be switched off now that 5G is here?
• The 3G4G Blog: Can KaiOS accelerate the transition from 2G / 3G to 4G? 

Are there 50 Billion IoT Devices yet?

Detailed post below but if you are after a quick summary, it's in the picture above.

Couple of weeks back someone quoted that there were 50 billion devices last year (2020). After challenging them on the number, they came back to me to say that there were over 13 billion based on GSMA report. While the headline numbers are correct, there are some finer details we need to look at.

It all started back in 2010 when the then CEO of Ericsson announced that there will be 50 Billion IoT Devices by 2020. You could read all about it here and see the presentation here. While it doesn't explicitly say, it was expected that the majority of these will be based on cellular technologies. I also heard the number 500 Billion by 2030, back in 2013.

So the question is how many IoT devices are there today and how many of these are based on mobile cellular technologies?

The headline number provided by the GSMA Mobile Economy report, published just in time for MWC 2021, is 13.1 billion in 2020. It does not provide any further details on what kind of connectivity these devices use. I had to use my special search skills to find the details here.

As you can see, only 1.9 billion of these are based on cellular connections, of which 0.2 billion are based on licensed Low Power Wide Area (licensed LPWA, a.k.a. LTE-M and NB-IoT) connections. 

Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2021, has a much more detailed breakdown regarding the numbers as can be seen in the slide above. As of the end of 2020, there were 12.4 billion IoT devices, of which 10.7 billion were based on Short-range IoT. Short-range IoT is defined as a segment that largely consists of devices connected by unlicensed radio technologies, with a typical range of up to 100 meters, such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and Zigbee.

Wide-area IoT, which consists of segment made up of devices using cellular connections or unlicensed low-power technologies like Sigfox and LoRa had 1.7 billion devices. So, the 1.6 billion cellular IoT devices also includes LPWAN technologies like LTE-M and NB-IoT.

Figures are connections/SIMs sold - not all will be live yet.

— Tom Rebbeck (@tomrebbeck) September 29, 2021

I also reached out to IoT experts at analyst firm Analysys Mason. As you can see in the Tweet above, Tom Rebbeck, Partner at Analysys Mason, mentioned 1.6 billion cellular (excluding NB-IoT + LTE-M) and 220 million LPWA (which includes NB-IoT, LTE-M, as well as LoRa, Sigfox etc.) IoT connections.

If I understand this correctly, as of June 2021 there were 1.55 billion cellular IoT connections. Do these include NB-IoT as well as LTE-M?

— Zahid Ghadialy (@zahidtg) October 2, 2021

I also noticed this interesting chart in the tweet above which shows the growth of IoT from Dec 2010 until June 2021. Matt Hatton, Founding Partner of Transforma Insights, kindly clarified that the number as 1.55 billion including NB-IoT and LTE-M.

As you can see, the number of cellular IoT connections are nowhere near 50 billion. Even if we include all kinds of IoT connectivity, according to the most optimistic estimate by Ericsson, there will be just over 26 billion connections by 2026.

Just before concluding, it is worth highlighting that according to all these cellular IoT estimates, over 1 billion of these connections are in China. GSMA's 'The Mobile Economy China 2021' puts the number as 1.34 billion as of 2020, growing to 2.29 billion by 2025. Details on page 9 here.

Hopefully, when someone wants to talk about Internet of Thing numbers in the future, they will do a bit more research or just quote the numbers from this post here.

Related Posts: 

• 3G4G: Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine-2-Machine (M2M)
• Connectivity Technology Blog: The Wide Variety of Internet of Things (IoT) Technologies for Different Situations
• The 3G4G Blog: '5G RAN Release 18 for Industry Verticals' Webinar Highlights
• The 3G4G Blog: Introduction to 5G Reduced Capability (RedCap) Devices
• Connectivity Technology Blog: Cellular Connectivity Technology Landscape and Standards for Industrial IoT
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G Non IP Data Delivery and Lightweight M2M (LwM2M) over NIDD
• The 3G4G Blog: Mobile Initiated Connection Only (MICO) mode in 5G System
• The 3G4G Blog: Embedded SIM (eSIM) and Integrated SIM (iSIM)
• Connectivity Technology Blog: Operators Are Looking Up to SpaceMobile for All Gs and IoT Connectivity
• Connectivity Technology Blog: GSMA IoT WebTalk 'Clear Skies Ahead for Mobile-Enabled Drones' 

The Status of 5G Standalone (5G SA) Networks - March 2021

I wonder if you have seen as many adverts talking about the 5G revolution as I have. In fact I have collected many of them here. The problem is that most of these promised 5G awesomeness can only be delivered when 5G Standalone networks are launched. 

Before going further, if you don't know what 5G standalone (SA) and non-standalone (NSA) networks are, then you may want to check one of my tutorials/video. For beginners here and slightly advanced version here. If you just want to learn about the 5G core, tutorial here.

I believe that the 5G Non-standalone networks are a hack that were designed mainly to show just the 5G icon and in some cases it also provided enhanced speeds. Some operators have realised this and are thinking about the 5G NSA sunset. There are some potential issues with 5G SA speeds that need sorting out though.

The transition from NSA to SA 5G may happen sooner than most people expect. This keynote from ZTE at Layer123 World Congress provides insights from China - https://t.co/Q0Sm7AkS3r via @layer123live#Free5Gtraining #5G #5GNetworks #5GC #5GCore #5GTechnology #5GSA #5GNSA #ZTE pic.twitter.com/R0jeixFKCf

— 5G Training (@5Gtraining) November 2, 2020

GSA recently held a webinar looking at the status of 5G Standalone networks. The video of the webinar is embedded at the end of the post. The webinar summarised the stats as following:

• By mid-March 2021, 428 operators in 132 countries/territories were investing in 5G
• 176 operators in 76 countries/territories had announced they had deployed 3GPP compliant 5G technology in their live networks
• Of those, a total of 153 operators in 64 countries/territories had launched one or more 3GPP-compliant 5G services
• 145 operators in 60 countries/territories had launched 3GPP-compliant 5G mobile services
• 51 operators in 29 countries/territories had launched 3GPP-compliant 5G FWA or home broadband services
• For comparison, there are 807 public LTE networks worldwide
• GSA has identified 68 operators in 38 countries/territories that are investing in 5G standalone for public mobile networks
• Of those, a total of 7 operators in 5 countries/territories had launched 5G SA networks
• Operators in China have deployed/upgraded hundreds of thousands of base stations 
• T-Mobile has a nationwide network
• Plus China Mobile HK, Rain (South Africa) and DirecTV (Colombia)
• Also ITC KSA (soft launch), STC KSA deployed, Telstra 5G core deployed, plus various contracts for 5G core systems

Private Networks, Non-public networks (NPN) and Industrial 5G Networks are also expected to make use of standalone 5G networks. As 5G networks get virtualized and open, we will see a lot more of these.

The webinar also highlighted the progress of 5G devices:

• There has been rapid growth in the numbers and types of 5G devices being announced and launched
• As of end February:
• 628 5G devices announced
• 404 commercially available (up from 303 at the end of November)
• 104 vendors
• 21 announced form factors
• Majority are phones (306 announced, 274 commercial)
• 5G SA devices are also appearing
• 298 devices announced with 5G SA support
• 204 commercial devices state support for 5G SA
• Software upgrades likely to be required
• Steadily climbing up as % of all 5G devices
• Now >47% of announced
• >50% of commercial

Here is the webinar:

Related Posts: 

• Free 5G Training: 5G Adverts
• 3G4G: 5G for Absolute Beginners
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G Network Architecture Options 
• The 3G4G Blog: The Politics of Standalone vs Non-Standalone 5G & 4G Speeds
• The 3G4G Blog - Tutorial: Service Based Architecture (SBA) for 5G Core (5GC)
• The 3G4G Blog: When does your 5G NSA Device Show 5G Icon?
• The 3G4G Blog: Would 5G NSA undergo Sunset? When?
• Operator Watch Blog: The Many Firsts of STC Kuwait
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G Private and Non-Public Network (NPN)
• The 3G4G Blog: Challenges and Future Perspectives of Industrial 5G
• The 3G4G Blog: Open RAN Explanation, Videos, White papers and Other Resources
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G Remote Surgery and Telehealth Solutions 

Mobile Voice Communications is neither Dying, nor Dead!

If you have been following the mobile industry for a long time, you could be forgiven for thinking that voice communications is dead. This 2013 article for example talks about the impending death of voice and this 2018 article talks about how smartphones have killed the art of conversation. These are just examples and I have read many similar articles in the last 5-10 years.

The thing is that a lot of unnecessary calls became SMS and messages once the price of SMS and data went down. Similarly, voice ceased to be a differentiator in many markets so they started offering unlimited voice and/or SMS locally. This does not necessarily solve my requirements for international calling so I moved on to Viber, WeChat and WhatsApp.

The annual TeleGeography Report and Database update (just released) estimates that international over-the-top (OTT) voice traffic reached 1 trillion minutes in 2019, compared to just 432 billion minutes of international carrier traffic.

Anyway, with the lockdown in many countries because of coronavirus COVID-19, people have re-discovered the use of voice communications again. While I prefer having meetings on the internet, sometimes it's just simpler to call using your phone. A friend discovered that while she has some 40 GB data allowance that was generally more than enough, working from home means that she is having to use her device as a hotspot that is using up all her data. Switching from OTT calling to unlimited voice calling in her package means that she doesn't have to worry about voice calls eating her data package.

She is not alone. Operators all over are reporting the rise in voice communications:

• 27 Mar 2020 - O2 UK reported, "Since March 16th we have seen approximately 57% more voice traffic at the busiest point of the day. Typically voice traffic increases 5% year on year, and in a week we have experienced an increase of voice traffic comparable to nine years of regular demand." (link)
• 26 Mar 2020 - Official numbers reported by CTIA from Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint and U.S. Cellular stated that mobile voice traffic was up 24.3% while mobile data traffic was up 9.2% (see photo above - link)
• 24 Mar 2020 - Telenor Norwar tweeted, "Traffic has increased sharply since the coronary smith was seriously registered in this country. 50% increase in mobile voice, 25% increase in mobile data and 30-40% increase in fixed broadband"
• 24 Mar 2020 - T-Mobile USA released some interesting stats including gaming, etc. With regards to voice, their announcement said, "People are talking and texting more. Messaging is up dramatically, with a 26% increase in SMS (texting) and a 77% increase in MMS (pictures, multi-party texts, etc.). And, the amount of time people spend on calls has increased 17% nationwide." (link)
• 20 Mar 2020 - Telia in Denmark reported, "Thursday, March 12, the volume of speech in the network thus increased by 24% compared to the day before. Over the weekend 50% more was spoken - obviously due to a need to gain status on family and friends in the new situation. In the past working week, about 60% more has been spoken on the phone than on a normal week in March." (translated from original)

Is voice important for an operator? Probably not very much in the developed markets where users pay a good amount for data packages. In developing countries, voice is still a good source of revenue. At the TIP summit last year, Malaysian telecom giant Axiata said that ""every gigabyte costs about $1.40 to manufacture...generates only 80 cents in revenue...The 2G voice business currently funds any losses". This is not a long term sustainable model for these operators.

Of the 1000 people surveyed, top 5 things people in the USA want from 5G:
• Faster data speeds
• Improved coverage – fewer dead spots
• Clearer voice quality 🤔
• better battery life
• lower cost servicehttps://t.co/aK4ym25seW

— Zahid Ghadialy (@zahidtg) March 23, 2018

Funnily I just remembered that in a survey of over 1000 people in the USA regarding what they want from 5G, the third most important thing was "clearer voice quality". If you want to understand how voice quality is measured that see this tweet below

How do you measure voice quality! pic.twitter.com/a9aNBVMa9L

— 3G4G (@3g4gUK) May 2, 2017

We may keep on seeing a boom in voice traffic as more lockdowns occur and they are even stricter. We will have to wait and see of this habit of talking sticks or it's just for this unusual situation.

Related Posts:

• The 3G4G Blog: A quick starter on 4G voice (for beginners)

Real-life 5G Use Cases for Verticals from China

GSMA have recently published a series of reports related to China. This includes the 'The Mobile Economy China' report as well as reports on ‘Impacts of mmWave 5G in China’, ‘5G use cases for verticals China 2020’ and ‘Powered by SA case studies’. They are all available here.

China currently has 1.65bn subscribers (Excluding licensed cellular IoT) which is expected to grow to 1.73bn in 2025. The report quotes 1.20bn unique mobile subscribers that is expected to grow to 1.26bn by 2025. With a population of 1.44 billion, this would be assuming everyone over 10 years has a smartphone. 2G and 3G is being phased out so only 4G and 5G will be around in 2025. This would be different for IoT.

The 5G Use Cases for Verticals China 2020 report is comprised of 15 outstanding examples of 5G-empowered applications for verticals, ranging from industrial manufacturing, transportation, electric power, healthcare, education, to content creation, and zooms into the practical scenarios, technical features, and development opportunities for the next generation technology. Every use case represents the relentless efforts of 5G pioneers who are open, cooperative, and innovative.

1. Flexible Smart Manufacturing with 5G Edge Computing (RoboTechnik, China Mobile, Ericsson)
2. 5G Smart Campus in Haier Tianjin Washing Machine Factory (China Mobile, Haier)
3. Aircraft Surface Inspection with 5G and 8K at Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac, China Unicom, Huawei)
4. Xinfengming Group’s Smart Factory Based on MEC Technology (Xinfengming, China Mobile, ZTE)
5. SANY Heavy Industry 5G and Smart Manufacturing (Sany, China Mobile, China Telecom, ZTE)
6. Xiangtan Iron & Steel's 5G Smart Plant (Xisc, China Mobile, Huawei)
7. The Tianjin 5G Smart Port (Tianjin, China Unicom, ZTE, Trunk)
8. 5G Intelligent Connected Vehicle Pilot in Wuhan (China Mobile, Huawei, et al.)
9. 5G BRT Connected Vehicle-Infrastructure Cooperative System (China Unicom, DTmobile, et al.)
10. 5G for Smart Grid (China Mobile, Huawei, et al.)
11. Migu's "Quick Gaming" Platform (China Mobile, et al.)
12. 5G Cloud VR Demonstration Zone in Honggutan, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province (Besttone, China Telecom, Huawei)
13. 5G Cloud VR Education Application Based on AI QoE (China Telecom, Nokia, et al.)
14. China MOOC Conference: 5G + Remote Virtual Simulation Experiment (China Unicom, Vive HTC, Dell Technologies, et al.)
15. 5G-empowered Hospital Network Architecture Standard (CAICT, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, Huawei, et al.)

They are all detailed in the report here.

I have written about 5G Use Cases in a blog post earlier, which also contains a video playlist of use cases from around the world. Not many from China in there at the moment but should be added as and when they are available and I discover them.


Related Posts:

• Operator Watch Blog: China Allocates Shared Spectrum for Indoor Use, CBN gets Third Spectrum for 5G Network
• The 3G4G Blog: Examples of 5G Use Cases & Applications
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G Private and Non-Public Network (NPN)
• The 3G4G Blog: 5G and Industry 4.0
• The 3G4G Blog: What is Industrial IoT (IIoT) and how is it different from IoT?
• 3G4G: M2M, MTC & IoT
• Operator Watch Blog: China's Synchronized 5G Launch

Can KaiOS accelerate the transition from 2G / 3G to 4G?

The GSMA Mobile Economy 2018 report forecasts that 2G will still be around in 2025 and the dominant technology will be 3G in Africa. GSMA Intelligence Global Mobile Trends highlighted similar numbers but North Africa was missing in that report. As you can see in the picture below, 3G devices will make up 62% of the total number of devices in Sub-Saharan Africa and 37% in MENA.

Similar information was provided by Navindran Naidoo, Executive, Network Planning & Design, MTN Group in TIP Summit 2017 and Babak Fouladi, Technology and Information System (Group CTIO) , MTN Group in TIP Summit 2018. In fact Babak had a slide that showed 3G devices would make up 61%  of total devices in 2025 in Africa. Rob Shuter, Group President and CEO, MTN Group said at AfricaCom 2018 that Africa lags 7 years behind the Western countries in mobile technologies. Though this may not be universally true, its nevertheless a fact in many areas of the Continent as can be seen from the stats.

In my blog post "2G / 3G Switch Off: A Tale of Two Worlds", I said operators in many developing countries that maybe forced to switch off a technology would rather switch 3G off as they have a big base of 2G users and 3G devices can always fall back on 2G.

So what are the main reasons so many users are still on 2G devices or feature phones? Here are some that I can think off the top of my head:

• Hand-me-downs
• Cheap and affordable
• Given as a gift (generally because its cheap and affordable)
• 2G has better coverage than 3G and 4G in many parts of the world
• Second/Third device, used as backup for voice calls
• Most importantly - battery can last for a long time

This last point is important for many people across different parts of the world. In many developing countries electricity is at a premium. Many villages don't have electricity and people have to take a trip to a market or another village to get their phones charged. This is an expensive process. (Interesting article on this here and here). In developed countries, many schools do not allow smartphones. In many cases, the kids have a smartphone switched off in their bag or left at home. For parents to keep in touch, these kids usually have a feature phone too. 

While all feature phones that were available until couple of years ago were 2G phones, things have been changing recently. In an earlier tweet I mentioned that Reliance Jio has become a world leader in feature phones:

In just 10 months, Reliance Jio’s become the world leader in feature phones https://t.co/bNP0X5qiO2 via @qzindia #4G #FeaturePhones pic.twitter.com/SBkmWo4m0X

— Zahid Ghadialy (@zahidtg) May 31, 2018

I also wrote about Jio phone 2 launch, which is still selling very well. So what is common between Jio phones and Nokia 8110 4G, a.k.a. Banana phone

Nokia 8810 "banana phone" from #MWC18 pic.twitter.com/775FFQANwh

— Parallel Wireless (@Parallel_tw) February 26, 2018

They both use a new mobile operating system called KaiOS. So what is KaiOS?

KaiOS originates from the Firefox OS open-source project which started in 2011 and has continued independently from Mozilla since 2016. Today, KaiOS is a web-based operating system that enables a new category of lite phones and other IoT devices that require limited memory, while still offering a rich user experience through leading apps and services. KaiOS is a US-based company with additional offices in France, Germany, Taiwan, India, Brazil, Hong Kong, and mainland China. You can find a list of KaiOS powered devices here. In fact you can see the specifications of all the initial devices using KaiOS here.

Here is a video that explains why we need KaiOS:



There are couple of really good blog posts by Sebastien Codeville, CEO of KaiOS:

• Africa, The Next Big Feature Phone Opportunity?
• AfricaCom 2018: Africa Joins the Digital Revolution with First-ever Smart Feature Phones

There is so much information in both these articles that I will have to copy and paste the entire articles to do them justice. Instead, I want to embed the presentation that Sebastien delivered at AfricaCom below:

KaiOS AfricaCom Presentation - 15 November 2018 from KaiOS Technologies

I like the term 'smart feature phone' to distinguish between the smartphones and old dumb feature phones.

The slimmest #3G feature phone has been launched in India (via @DeccanChronicle)https://t.co/524yEKXaUw

— Parallel Wireless (@Parallel_tw) November 29, 2018

Finally, it should be mentioned that some phone manufacturers are using older version of Android to create a feature phone. One such phone is "Reinvent iMi" that is being billed as 'Slimmest Smart 3G Feature Phone' in India. It uses Android 4.1. See details here. Would love to find out more about its battery life in practice.

My only small concern is about security of old Android OS. As Android is extensively used, new vulnerabilities keep getting discovered all the time. Google patches them in newer versions of the software or sometimes releases a separate patch. All updates to the Android OS stops after 3 years. This means that older versions of Android can be hacked quite easily. See here for example.

Anyway, feature phones or 'smart feature phones' are here to stay. Better on 4G than on 2G.

Introduction to Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)

We have just produced a new tutorial on Fixed Wireless Access (FWA). The high level introductory tutorial looks at what is meant by Fixed Wireless Access, which is being touted as one of the initial 5G use cases. This presentation introduces FWA and looks at a practical deployment example.

According to GSA report, "Global Progress to 5G – Trials, Deployments and Launches", July 2018:

One use-case that has gained prominence is the use of 5G to deliver fixed wireless broadband services. We have identified 20 tests so far that have specifically focused on the fixed wireless access (FWA) use-case, which is five more than three months ago.

Embedded below is the video and presentation of the FWA tutorial.

Beginners: Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) from 3G4G

If you found this useful, you would be interested in other tutorials on the 3G4G website here.

Related Posts:

• Keima: Automated 4G / 5G HetNet Design
• 5G Network Architecture Options (Updated)

Multicast Operation on Demand (MooD) and Service Continuity for eMBMS

Many regular readers of this blog are aware that back in 2014 I wrote a post looking critically at LTE-Broadcast business case and suggested a few approaches to make it a success. Back in those days, 2014 was being billed as the year of LTE-Broadcast or eMBMS (see here and here for example). I was just cautioning people against jumping on the LTE-B bandwagon.

According to a recent GSA report 'LTE Broadcast (eMBMS) Market Update – March 2018':

• thirty-nine operators are known to have been investing in eMBMS demonstrations, trials, deployments or launches
• five operators have now deployed eMBMS or launched some sort of commercial service using eMBMS

Its good to see some operators now getting ready to deploy eMBMS for broadcast TV scenarios. eMBMS will also be used in Mission Critical Communications for the features described here.

In a recent news from the Australian operator Telstra:

Telstra is now streaming live sports content to a massive base of around 1.2 million devices each weekend and sports fans consume 37 million minutes of live content over our apps on any given weekend.

This increase brings new challenges to the way traffic on our mobile network is managed. Even though a large group of people might be streaming the same real-time content at the same time, we still need to ensure a high quality streaming experience for our customers.

This challenge makes our sporting apps a prime use case for LTE-Broadcast (LTE-B).

Earlier this year, we announced we would be turning on LTE-B functionality on the AFL Live Official app for Telstra customers with Samsung Galaxy S8 and Galaxy S9 devices. Following extensive testing, Telstra is the only operator in Australia – and one of the first in the world – to deploy LTE-B into its mobile network.

At a live demonstration in Sydney, over 100 Samsung Galaxy S8 and Galaxy S9 devices were on display showing simultaneous high definition content from the AFL Live Official app using LTE-B.

Its interesting to note here that the broadcast functionality (and probably intelligence) is built into the app.

According to another Telstra news item (emphasis mine):

The use of LTE-Broadcast technology changes the underlying efficiency of live video delivery as each cell can now support an unlimited number of users watching the same content with improved overall quality. To date though, LTE-B technology has required that a dedicated part of each cell’s capacity be set aside for broadcasting. This had made the LTE-B business case harder to prove in for lower streaming demand rates.

This has now changed as Telstra and our partners have enabled the world’s first implementation of the Multicast Operation on Demand (MooD) feature whereby cells in the network only need to configure for LTE-B when there are multiple users watching the same content.

This combined with the Service Continuity feature allows mobile users to move around the network seamlessly between cells configured for LTE-B and those which are not.

Earlier this year we announced our intention to enable LTE-Broadcast (LTE-B) across our entire mobile network in 2018. With MooD and service continuity we are one step closer to that goal as we head into another year of major growth in sporting content demand.

Supported by technology partners Ericsson and Qualcomm, Telstra has now delivered world first capability to ensure LTE-B can be delivered as efficiently as possible.

Service Continuity will allow devices to transition in and out of LTE-B coverage areas without interruption. For instance, you might be at a music festival streaming an event on your phone but need to leave the venue and make your way back home (where LTE-B is not in use). Service Continuity means you can continue to watch the stream and the transition will be seamless – even though you have the left the broadcast area.

Taking that a step further, MooD allows the network to determine how many LTE-B compatible devices in any given area are consuming the same content. MooD then intelligently activates or deactivates LTE-B, ensuring the mobile network is as efficient as possible in that location.

For example, if a die-hard football fan is streaming a match we will likely service that one user with unicast, as that is the most efficient way of delivering the content. However if more users in the same cell decide to watch the match, MooD makes the decision automatically as to whether it is more efficient to service those users by switching the stream to broadcasting instead of individual unicast streams.

Its good to see Ericsson & Qualcomm finally taking eMBMS to commercial deployment. Back in 2015, I added their videos from MWC that year. See post here.

I think the Telstra post already provides info on why MooD is needed but this picture from Qualcomm whitepaper above makes it much clearer. Back in 3G MBMS and early days or eMBMS, there used to be a feature called counting, MooD is effectively doing the same thing.

For Service Continuity, this paper 'Service Continuity for eMBMS in LTE/LTE-Advanced Network: Standard Analysis and Supplement' by Ngoc-Duy Nguyen and Christian Bonnet has interesting proposal on how it should be done. I cannot be sure if this is correct as per the latest specifications but its interesting to learn how this would be done when the user moves out of coverage area in Idle or connected mode.

Note that this Expway paper also refers to Service continuity as Session continuity.

Related posts:

• Telstra's LTE-B Push
• Reliance Jio getting ready for LTE-Broadcast (eMBMS) rollout

Summary and Analysis of Ericsson Mobility Report 2018

Ericsson Mobility reports always make a fantastic reading. Its been a while since I wrote anything on this topic so I thought lets summarize it and also provide my personal analysis. Please feel free to disagree as this is just a blog post.

Before we start, the official site for the report is here. You can jump directly to the PDF here. Ericsson will also be holding a webinar on this topic on 19 June, you can register here.

A short summary of some of the highlights are in the table above but lets look at more in detail.

Mobile subscriptions 

• The total number of mobile subscriptions was around 7.9 billion in Q1 2018.
• There are now 5.5 billion mobile broadband subscriptions.
• Global subscription penetration in Q1 2018 was 104 percent.
• The number of LTE subscriptions increased by 210 million during the quarter to reach a total of 2.9 billion.
• Over the same period, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions declined by 90 million. Other technologies declined by around 32 million.
• Subscriptions associated with smartphones now account for around 60 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions.

Many things to note above. There is still a big part of the world which is unconnected and most of the connectivity being talked about is population based coverage. While GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions are declining, many smartphone users are still camped on to GSM/EDGE for significant time.

While smartphones are growing, feature phones are not far behind. Surprisingly, Reliance Jio has become a leader of 4G feature phones.

My analysis from the developing world shows that many users are getting a GSM feature phone as a backup for when smartphone runs out of power.


Mobile subscriptions worldwide outlook

• 1 billion 5G subscriptions for enhanced mobile broadband by the end of 2023, accounting for 12 percent of all mobile subscriptions.
• LTE subscriptions continues to grow strongly and is forecast to reach 5.5 billion by the end of 2023
• In 2023, there will be 8.9 billion mobile subscriptions, 8.3 billion mobile broadband subscriptions and 6.1 billion unique mobile subscribers.
• The number of smartphone subscriptions is forecast to reach 7.2 billion in 2023.

The report describes "A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports NR as specified in 3GPP Release 15, connected to a 5G-enabled network." which is a good approach but does not talk about 5G availability. My old question (tweet below) on "How many 5G sites does an operator have to deploy so that they can say they have 5G?" is still waiting for an answer.

Question: How many 5G sites does an operator have to deploy so that they can say they have 5G?

— Zahid Ghadialy (@zahidtg) October 18, 2017

5G device outlook

• First 5G data-only devices are expected from the second half of 2018.
• The first 3GPP smartphones supporting 5G are expected in early 2019.
• From 2020, when third-generation chipsets will be introduced, large numbers of 5G devices are forecast.
• By 2023, 1 billion 5G devices for enhanced mobile broadband are expected to be connected worldwide.

Qualcomm has made a good progress (video) on this front and there are already test modems available for 5G. I wont be surprised with the launch. It would remain to be seen what will be the price point and demand for these 5G data-only devices. The Register put it quite bluntly about guinea pigs here. I am also worried about the misleading 5G claims (see here).


Voice over LTE (VoLTE) outlook

• At the end of 2017, VoLTE subscriptions exceeded 610 million.
• The number of VoLTE subscriptions is projected to reach 5.4 billion by the end of 2023.
• VoLTE technology will be the foundation for enabling 5G voice calls.
• New use cases in a 5G context are being explored, such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR).

Back in 2011, I suggested the following (tweet below)

Soon = before 2015. Ideally, if its working then never, until forced - RT @Gabeuk: I suspect VoLTE adoption will pick-up briskly in 2013.

— Zahid Ghadialy (@zahidtg) July 13, 2011

Looks like things haven't changed significantly. There are still many low end devices that do not support VoLTE and many operators dont support VoLTE on BYOD. VoLTE has been much harder than everyone imagined it to be.


Mobile subscriptions worldwide by region

• Globally, mobile broadband subscriptions now make up 68 percent of all mobile subscriptions.
• 5G subscriptions will be available in all regions in 2023.
• In 2023, 48 percent of subscriptions in North America and 34 percent in North East Asia are expected to be for 5G.

I think that for some regions these predictions may be a bit optimistic. Many operators are struggling with finance and revenue, especially as the pricing going down due to intense competition. It would be interesting to see how these numbers hold up next year.

While China has been added to North-East Asia, it may be a useful exercise to separate it. Similarly Middle East should be separated from Africa as the speed of change is going to be significantly different.


Mobile data Traffic Growth and Outlook

• In Q1 2018, mobile data traffic grew around 54 percent year-on-year.
• The quarter-on-quarter growth was around 11 percent.
• In 2023, 20 percent of mobile data traffic will be carried by 5G networks.
• North America has the highest monthly usage of mobile data per smartphone at 7.2 gigabytes (GB), anticipated to increase to 49GB in 2023.
• Total mobile data traffic is expected to increase by nearly eight times by the end of 2023.
• In 2023, 95 percent of total mobile data traffic is expected to be generated by smartphones, increasing from 85 percent today.
• North East Asia has the largest share of mobile data traffic – set to reach 25EB per month in 2023.

This is one of the toughest areas of prediction as there are a large number of factors affecting this from pricing to devices and applications.

Quiz question: Do you remember which year did data traffic overtake voice traffic? Answer here (external link to avoid spoilers)


Mobile traffic by application category

• In 2023, video will account for around 73 percent of mobile data traffic.
• Traffic from social networking is also expected to rise – increasing by 31 percent annually over the next 6 years.
• The relative share of social networking traffic will decline over the same period, due to the stronger growth of video.
• Streaming videos in different resolutions can impact data traffic consumption to a high degree. Watching HD video (720p) rather than standard resolution video (480p) typically doubles the data traffic volume, while moving to full HD (1080p) doubles it yet again.
• Increased streaming of immersive video formats would also impact data traffic consumption.

It would have been interesting if games were a separate category. Not sure if it has been lumped with Video/Audio or in Other segments.


IoT connections outlook

• The number of cellular IoT connections is expected to reach 3.5 billion in 2023. This is almost double our last forecast, due to ongoing large-scale deployments in China.
• Of the 3.5 billion cellular IoT connections forecast for 2023, North East Asia is anticipated to account for 2.2 billion.
• New massive cellular IoT technologies, such as NB-IoT and Cat-M1, are taking off and driving growth in the number of cellular IoT connections.
• Mobile operators have commercially launched more than 60 cellular IoT networks worldwide using Cat-M1 and NB-IoT.

It is important to look at the following 2 definitions though.

Short-range IoT: Segment that largely consists of devices connected by unlicensed radio technologies, with a typical range of up to 100 meters, such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and Zigbee. This category also includes devices connected over fixed-line local area networks and powerline technologies

Wide-area IoT: Segment consisting of devices using cellular connections, as well as unlicensed low-power technologies, such as Sigfox and LoRa

The Wide-area IoT in the table above includes cellular IoT. If you are a regular reader of this blog, you will know that I think LoRa has a bright future and my belief is that this report ignores some of the reasons behind the popularity of LoRa and its growth story. 


Network coverage

• In 2023, more than 20 percent of the world’s population will be covered by 5G.
• 5G is expected to be deployed first in dense urban areas to support enhanced mobile broadband.
• Another early use case for 5G will be fixed wireless access.
• Today, 3GPP cellular networks cover around 95 percent of the world’s population.

A lot of work needs to be done in this area to improve coverage in rural and remote locations.

I will leave this post at this point. The report also contains details on Network Evolution, Network Performance, Smart Manufacturing, etc. You can read it from the report.